College Basketball "Safe Lead" Calculator

Baseball statistics expert Bill James has built a great tool that calculates how "safe" a college basketball lead is at a specific point of a game. James wrote an article about it in the March 17, 2008 issue of Slate.

James explains the mathematical formula that determines the percentage of "safety" a lead has at a specific point of the game. While it doesn't take into consideration a team's personnel, injuries, style of play, etc., the research is based on thousands of games and the statistical probability (or improbability) that a team can come back from a deficit with the shot clock and amount of time remaining. It's a fun tool to play with.

Scroll halfway down the page to find the calculator.